After weeks of dry situations and Santa Ana winds, rain is headed towards Ventura County.
A storm might present up as early as Sunday afternoon, mentioned David Candy, a meteorologist on the Nationwide Climate Service in Oxnard. By Sunday night time, the forecast calls for the prospect of rain to succeed in 70%.
An opportunity of precipitation is anticipated to stay round by means of Wednesday. In all, native areas might see a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rainfall, Candy mentioned.
Late subsequent week, what seems to be like a stronger storm might transfer into the world, he mentioned. However for now, it’s too quickly to say whether or not it can present up regionally or how a lot rain might fall.
If individuals are rooting for rain, it’s wanting extra hopeful, Candy mentioned. There’s a development for the jet stream – a form of freeway of storms – to begin pushing farther south.
“We’re taking a look at a development towards a wetter sample,” he mentioned.
Present satellite tv for pc imagery reveals the subsequent low (comma formed clouds) west of the Pacific NW, related to our upcoming probabilities of rain starting Sunday. We expect the primary low heart to move properly to our north, so that would restrict rainfall totals. #socal #cawx pic.twitter.com/LswHqDzwbl
— NWS Los Angeles (@NWSLosAngeles) December 14, 2023
Wet season will get a dry begin
That comes after being caught in a dry sample for the previous few weeks.
To this point, the county has recorded a drier than regular begin to the wet season. As of Thursday, a lot of the county had obtained below 20% of regular rainfall at this level within the water yr, which runs from October by means of September.
However it’s nonetheless early.
October and November mark the beginning of the native wet season however aren’t usually the area’s wettest months. With out early rainfall, nonetheless, there’s little to blunt the impact of dry Santa Ana winds. When the winds kick up, fires can ignite simpler and flames can burn quicker and farther because the vegetation dries out.
Over the previous couple of weeks, Santa Anas have downed bushes, prompted energy outages and stoked a wildfire. The South Fire ignited close to Somis on Saturday and burned greater than 2,700 acres in western Ventura County.
El Niño might imply a moist winter
After a string of dry years, the county got drenched throughout a moist 2022-23 regardless of early predictions of beneath regular rainfall. Some spots reached double that of a traditional season, based on preliminary figures from the Ventura County Watershed Safety District.
The moist winter helped recharge groundwater provides and increase native reservoirs. In August, usually one of many driest months of the yr, Tropical Storm Hilary introduced extra rain.
A big El Niño sample additionally confirmed up this summer time, and the hotter waters close to the equator can imply a wetter winter for Southern California.
However the declaration of an El Niño would not assure a moist, stormy winter, mentioned Julie Kalansky, a local weather scientist on the Scripps Establishment of Oceanography. There may be nonetheless numerous variability and never each occasion goes to comply with the overall sample, she mentioned.
Earlier than the rain reaches Ventura County late this weekend, the Nationwide Climate Service expects hotter temperatures with highs within the low to mid 70s by means of Friday. Then, cooler temperatures with highs within the mid-60s are anticipated because the storm will get nearer.
Cheri Carlson covers the setting and county authorities for the Ventura County Star. Attain her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260.
This text initially appeared on Ventura County Star: Rain on the way for Southern California. Here’s what to expect
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