APEX, North Carolina / DUBLIN, Eire, Apr 16 (IPS) – When the dialog turns to who may substitute António Guterres as UN Secretary-Common, the identify of Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, is on many insiders’ lips. Along with being Prime Minister, she additionally serves as her nation’s Minister of Finance, Financial Affairs and Funding, in addition to its Minister of Nationwide Safety and Public Service.
With present UN Secretary-Common António Guterres set to step down in 2026, who’s within the working to exchange him? This seven-part sequence reveal who may be nominated and assess their possibilities.
The potential candidates embrace Amina J. Mohammed (Nigeria), Mia Motley (Barbados), Alicia Barcena (Mexico), Maria Fernanda Espinosa (Ecuador), Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) and Michelle Bachelet (Chile). These are names which have come up in conversations with UN insiders and different consultants. All six would supply abilities and experiences we consider can be priceless in these fast-paced, unsure occasions.
She is Barbados’ eighth Prime Minister and the primary lady to carry this workplace. She has led her nation’s Labour Occasion to 2 landslide election victories in 2018 and 2022. If UN member states are in search of a head of state to information the UN and multilateralism in these troubled occasions, Mia Mottley will likely be a transparent contender.
Mia Mottley first appeared on many individuals’s radars after her impassioned speech on the Glasgow COP26 Local weather Convention in late 2021. Her fiery phrases in Scotland had been adopted shortly afterwards by her Bridgetown Initiative, which requires a serious reform of the world’s multilateral monetary establishments, together with the Worldwide Financial Fund and World Financial institution.
Particularly, Mottley desires the IMF and others to ramp-up their work on local weather change and different improvement challenges and supply extra assist for probably the most weak nations. She has urged making financing simpler to entry and accessible at decrease rates of interest. For probably the most weak, she is an advocate for grants, relatively than loans that improve a rustic’s debt.
Working with the federal government of France and different companions from each North and South, Mottley has been advocating for clear and measurable modifications in worldwide funding, together with extra money for local weather resilience and particular drawing rights to allow growing nations to entry emergency local weather funds rapidly and simply.
Her vocal requires a “loss and harm” fund paid off at COP27 in Egypt when, in opposition to many insiders’ expectations, Mottley and her allies efficiently advocated for the creation of a brand new funding establishment.
This fund, which is able to assist nations struggling loss and harm from local weather change, had lengthy been thought-about unachievable as a consequence of opposition within the North. The breakthrough at COP27 and subsequent progress at COP28 in Dubai have burnished Mottley’s status as a reformer.
Local weather financing just isn’t the one problem the place the Barbadian chief has made a reputation for herself, nevertheless. On COVID 19, she resisted calls to limit cruise ships when the pandemic hit, providing 28 “homeless” vessels entry in 2020 when different nations had been turning them away.
Extra not too long ago, she has been main efforts on antimicrobial resistance—a difficulty extensively seen as a serious rising international risk to human well being. She has additionally been a robust advocate for sustainable improvement and for reparations for slavery.
A Republican and UN Reformer
In 2021, Mottley additionally took the historic act of remodeling Barbados right into a republic, bidding farewell to Queen Elizabeth II because the nation’s Head of State. Extra not too long ago, she has set her sights on reforming the UN Safety Council and specifically the veto powers granted to the UK, US, Russia, China, and France.
In her speech in 2022 to the UN Common Meeting, Mottley mentioned:
- “We consider {that a} Safety Council that retains the facility of veto within the fingers of some will nonetheless lead us to conflict as we’ve seen this 12 months, and subsequently the reform can’t merely be in its composition but in addition the removing of that veto.”
Assessing Mottley’s Prospects
Might Mia Mottley develop into the following UN Secretary-Common? Right here is our evaluation of her benefits and downsides ought to she select to enter the competition.
Benefits
- A Lady Chief: Mia Mottley can be a robust candidate to interrupt the glass ceiling and develop into the primary feminine chief of the UN.
- Location, Location: With the custom that the UN Secretary-Common is chosen by rotating by means of the varied UN areas, Mottley may be in the best place on the proper time. Though the final choice broke the cycle (Guterres is from Portugal, whereas an Japanese European was presupposed to be chosen), some folks consider the conference of rotation needs to be restored and that it’s now the flip of the Latin America and Caribbean area to appoint Guterres’ successor. Given Barbados’ location, Mottley may discover herself coming from the best place on the proper time.
- Confirmed Impression: Mottley’s success with the loss and harm fund, in addition to her noteworthy transfer to show Barbados right into a republic, have given her a status as somebody who can get issues carried out. Given the uncertainty swirling round worldwide diplomacy today, a determine with a status as a dynamic achiever could also be welcomed.
- Connections: As a nationwide chief energetic on the worldwide stage, Mottley is nicely linked and has developed good relations with leaders each within the North and South. Might her networks and connections with senior politicians assist her?
Disadvantages
- A Menace to the Massive 5? Mottley is pushing for UN Safety Council reform, together with ending the veto powers of the Massive 5 everlasting members: the US, UK, China, Russia, and France. And but it’s these nations that should in the end agree on and nominate a candidate for Secretary-Common, which the Common Meeting should then approve.
- Whereas it appears extremely unlikely the UK would maintain any grudges at Barbados’ transfer to develop into a republic—one thing different nations have carried out earlier than—how snug would any of the so-called Massive 5 really feel appointing a fiery advocate for curbing their very own UN standing and privilege? Would they resist such change … or may they see in Mottley somebody with whom they may discuss, negotiate, and presumably discover some type of compromise?
Whoever emerges as Guterres’ successor might want to persuade all 5 everlasting Safety Council members that they’re one of the best individual for the job. It will likely be a tough line for anybody to stroll, particularly when even a single veto may scuttle their hopes.
Regardless of Mottley’s apparent credentials, it’s her advocacy for Safety Council reform which will weigh most closely in opposition to any aspirations she might need to take the highest job. The powers of persuasion for which she is understood will have to be on full show.
Prof. Felix Dodds and Chris Spence have participated in United Nations conferences and negotiations because the Nineteen Nineties. They co-edited Heroes of Environmental Diplomacy: Profiles in Courage (Routledge, 2022), which examines the roles of people in inspiring change.
IPS UN Bureau
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